Like last year, I am breaking teams into categories rather than a pure ranking. Even more than last year, the range of possible outcomes is so diverse that I think categories are a more meaningful way of thinking about the conference, even if it might be more ‘daring’ to take a stand on an actual ranking.
(I’ve listed the teams in an order based on my preference, but there are so many ways that this season could unfold that I have little confidence in the order)
(e.g. I have IND listed 9th, but they could truly finish first with Haliburton in the MVP conversation, Carlisle in COTY, Zubac on All-Defense and, say, Andrew Nembhard as MIP)
Furthermore, I have just three categories, which happens when ELEVEN teams have reasonable expectations of finishing in the top six, with not a ton of space separating them.
Expectations for securing home court
(or at least top-6)
NYK
Last Year: 53 – 22, 3rd in East
Additions: Andre Drummond
Departures: Mitchell Robinson, Ariel Hukporti, Jeremy Sochan
The reigning champions had one of the most magical playoff runs in recent memory, coalescing into a practically unstoppable style of play. From that perspective, my skepticism may seem odd. Mitchell Robinson terrified me as much as any Knick, and his absence is a huge blow and an unnecessary own-goal thanks to owner James Dolan’s refusal to cross the second apron for a defending champion. Between the loss of Robinson, their uneven play throughout the season (scrounging out the 3-seed), and huge financial concerns looming, it is not hard for me to imagine the magic of the 2026 Championship diminishing in the face of struggles and frustration.
Ceiling: 1-seed that repeats as NBA Champions
Floor: Flirt with falling into the play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
BOS
Last Year: 56 – 22, 2nd in East
Additions: Paul George, Mitchell Robinson, Mike Conley
Departures: Jaylen Brown, Nikola Vucevic
My biggest prediction-miss last year, I had BOS making the play-in as their ceiling. The addition of Mitchell Robinson and return of Jayson Tatum do not auger for a step back, but I still can’t shake the feeling that this team doesn’t have the talent of a top team. Joe Mazulla knows how to win in the regular season, and how to make the team play greater than the sum of its parts. As such, it is easy to see them making the playoffs outright. However, if Tatum is less than we are accustomed to, and Robinson/PG are hurt a lot, it is easy for me to imagine a very difficult season in Boston.
Ceiling: Home court for two rounds
Floor: Miss playoffs after falling to play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
TOR
Last Year: 46 – 22, 5th in East
Additions: Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson
Departures: Brandon Ingram, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Gradey Dick
While the Raptors made the big leap from the lottery to the 5–seed, this season was shaping up to be a step back in a much more competitive Eastern Conference. However, after a breakout playoff performance by Scottie Barnes, the team pushed its chips in on re-acquiring the King in the North, Kawhi Leonard. While I am a big fan of the move, I can see results all over the place depending on Kawhi’s health. Truly, if Scottie Barnes can take another big step into 1st or 2nd team All–NBA status, Kawhi’s load management could become a far lesser concern.
Ceiling: Kawhi plays 65+ games, Scottie ascends, 1-seed
Floor: Kawhi plays < 30 games, offense fizzles, lottery pick heads to the Clippers
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
CLE
Last Year: 52 – 22, 4th in East
Additions: Peyton Watson, Mario Hezonja, Khalifa Diop
Departures: Dennis Schröder, Max Strus, Dean Wade, Keon Ellis, Larry Nance Jr.,
Georges Niang
Cleveland still has a lot of talent on the roster, and added the latest in a line of intended solutions to start at the 3 in Watson. However, that is a LOT of talent out the door. That said, after starting slow to a record of 21–18, they finished 30–12 and scraped their way to the Eastern Conference Finals. I have a hard time being too optimistic with this group. James Harden is getting older, Spida seems just below his peak, Watson is a wild card and although I really like Jarrett Allen, he has had his share of struggles of late. The team is under a ton of pressure after years of disappointment. Evan Mobley did not meet expectations last year, but if he can take a significant step forward, it would go a long way towards cementing their contender status
Ceiling: Home court for two rounds
Floor: Falling into the play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
DET
Last Year: 60 – 22, 1st in East
Additions: John Collins, Isaiah Joe, Taurean Prince
Departures: Tobias Harris, Caris Levert, Marcus Sasser, Isaiah Stewart
That is a lot of talent going out the door; The loss of Harris is notable in that the team was already lacking playmaking on offense, while the dump of Beef Stew without returning premium value was puzzling. I was proud to predict that this team could finish 1st in the East last year, but this offseason was a step back.
Ceiling: 1st round home court advantage
Floor: Miss playoffs after falling to play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
PHI
Last Year: 45 – 22, 7th in East
Additions: Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Anfernee Simons, Dean Wade, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ariel Hukporti
Departures: Paul George, Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond, Dalen Terry, Trendon Watford, Johni Broome
What an offseason in the city of brotherly love! Poaching JB from the rival Celtics after vanquishing them from the first round of the playoffs! Lebron on a minimum! Cheap + promising bench additions! So, some Sixers thoughts…
** The notion that Lebron is ring-chasing by joining a team that was in the play-in is laughably unserious.
** That is a TON of turnover, even if the talent is excellent. Teams need time to learn to play together at the highest level. Doubly so for Lebron teams
** Defense is a real question. Related, depth for their geriatric frontcourt was already an issue before Hukporti was injured for the season.
** JB did not always seem cool with not being seen as an alpha in Boston. He’s saying all the right things, but will that hold up in the face of sharing the court with Embiid, Maxey and Lebron? If not, what does that look like?
I believe expectations are generally a little too high for this group. Presuming they make the playoffs, no one will want to face them, but Nick Nurse is going to have his hands full. His tinkering, adjust-on-the-fly nature should serve him well but there is real downside here.
Lowkey development to watch: Does VJ Edgecombe have a leap in him? The second-year player taking a star turn could go a long way towards solidifying this team, both short- and long-term. Such a plot-twist would theoretically result in lots of winning, which helps paper over chemistry issues
Ceiling: Juggernaut title favourites
Floor: Limp into the play-in and wind up in the lottery
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
MIA
Last Year: 43 – 22, 10th in East
Additions: Giannis Antetokounmp, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, Nick Richards
Departures: Tyler Herro, Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware
As with the 76ers, I would note that with this much player movement, there are real adjustments to make that will take time. There are fit questions with Bam/Giannis, but I am not terribly concerned with that with the legendary Erik Spoelstra patrolling the bench. Is it significant that the Bucks were below .500 with Giannis in the lineup last season?
The biggest potential problem is the health of Giannis; Those calf issues have recurred for quite some time now. I sincerely hope he does not tear his Achilles, but the nagging issues he has experienced can be a precursor to that kind of catastrophic problem, concerns that are amplified by his ferocious style of play. Furthermore, the Bucks just weren’t nearly as dominant the last three years.
If healthy, I think it comes down to the role players and their shot-making. While I don’t love the personnel (letting Norm walk was puzzling, although it never seemed to me that they valued him properly), considering their history of developing role players, it would be unsurprising if they find success in that department.
Ceiling: Home Court in round 1
Floor: Giannis is hobbled once again, and they are back in the lottery
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
ATL
Last Year: 46 – 22, 6th in East
Additions: Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Dorian Finney-Smith
Departures: Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga, Zaccharie Risacher
Atlanta has a deep and improved roster, led by ascending 24 year old star Jalen Johnson. With great depth and a trove of trade assets, the Hawks seem primed to make splash on the trade market for a superstar to pair with Johnson. Until then, they remain a solid team that can compete with anyone on any given night, but probably lacking the star power necessary for a deep playoff run.
Ceiling: Home court in the first round
Floor: Play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
IND
Last Year: 19 – 22, 14th in East
Additions: Kelly Oubre Jr., Larry Nance Jr.
Departures: Kam Jones, Micah Potter
After a quiet offseason, things should be very different for the Pacers this season. Since they played in game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, they swapped out Myles Turner for Ivica Zubac. This alone is an incredible improvement, as Zubac is younger, a far better player at this point, is makes far less money. Also returning is the most underrated superstar in the NBA in my opinion. Haliburton’s physical athleticism doesn’t jump off the page: All he does well on the court is play basketball. His combination of fast-paced, elite decision- and play-making combined with his tiny turnover numbers result in high level team basketball that elevates everyone around him. Just look at the difference in team performance without him last year. I don’t know if this team has another Finals run in them, but underestimate them at your own peril. With coach Rick Carlisle hitting all the right notes and the return of Haliburton, do you really think they couldn’t do it all again?
Ceiling: Top six finish, followed by another Finals appearance
Floor: The magic doesn’t isn’t quite there like it was, and they’re fighting in the play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
ORL
Last Year: 45 – 22, 8th in East
Additions: Nikola Vucevic
Departures: Moritz Wagner
The team decided to mostly run back last year’s squad under a new coach, Sean Sweeney. For a team that hasn’t had much success, there is a ton of pressure in this locker room. They are very expensive and getting moreso. While they have won 40+ games each of the past three seasons, they keep flaming out in the first round and haven’t taken the next step into contention. If it doesn’t work this year, the franchise faces serious questions about whether to pivot into a rebuild or reload.
Ceiling: Home court in the first round
Floor: Play-in
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
WAS
Last Year: 17 – 22, 15th in East
Additions: Deandre Ayton, Tre Mann, Khris Middleton
Departures: Jaden Hardy, D’Angelo Russell, Cam Whitmore
Although they are not technically summer additions, it sure feels like the Trae Young/Anthony Davis pairing is new this season. The team will be actively trying to win, and there are real strengths to this squad. They have a variety of young players with varying degrees of promise, there is length everywhere, and the Young/AD combo would seem to offers a solid floor (presuming health).
Coach Brian Keefe deserves the chance to show his worth this season: For the first time, he’ll be working with a roster with talent, experience and modest expectations. It’s not the easiest gig, as he’ll be juggling Young/AD and their stature while also wanting to prioritize the development of Dybantsa and the young talent…all while trying to compete in a beefed up Eastern Conference. Strangely, for a team that is emerging from several years of unpleasant rebuilding, there is a decent amount of pressure and angst surrounding the organization.
Ceiling: Keefe finds the right mix, Wizards in the Top Six
Floor: The misfit toys never gel, Sitting home in April
Taking a Step Forward
BKN
Last Year: 20 – 22, 13th in East
Additions: Julius Randle, Keon Ellis, Moritz Wagner
Departures: Nic Claxton, Ziaire Williams
The lottery was not kind to the Nets. They had paid a decent price to re-acquire their own draft pick in the talent-rich 2026 draft, hoping to land a cornerstone star for their re-build. While Mikel Brown Jr is a fine prospect, they were not rewarded with a top four pick. The hope was that Brooklyn would be a competitive playoff team starting now, and that is not guaranteed to be the case. I like their offseason, getting Julius Randle for pennies on the dollar, supplementing their depth with Ellis and Wagner. Claxton was quietly not as good, so I don’t believe moving off of him will haunt them. I think Coach Jordi Fernandez will optimize the team’s talents, but I just don’t know whether there’s enough here to challenge the true powers of the East.
The Nets do have a lot of draft picks going forward, but only control their own in one of the next three drafts (2028). They are a team to watch in the trade market, both at the deadline and the 2027 draft
Ceiling: Come out of the play-in to lose in the first round
Floor: If it is going poorly, trade off every veteran of value and play the kids. Without control of their own pick, they lack incentive to avoid relegation
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
CHI
Last Year: 31 – 22, 12th in East
Additions: Norman Powell, Nic Claxton, Buddy Hield
Departures: Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons, Nick Richards, Rob Dillingham, Mouhamadou Gueye
And, of course, they add Caleb Wilson with the #4 pick. I believe this roster provides more hope than any Bulls team in a very long time. Wilson is a potential cornerstone who appears to be on a mission. The Bulls have enough talent that they should not have to worry about finishing in the relegation zone. They have veterans that should return real assets at the trade deadline unless they really mess it up (which, this being the Bulls, is a distinct possibility), particularly Powell, Claxton and Hield. They won’t be very good, but this should be entertaining and a solid basis for a forward-looking franchise.
Ceiling: Contending for the play-in while being entertaining on a nightly basis
Floor: Same, but in combination with crapping the bed at the trade deadline and the younglings not looking great.
Volunteering as Tribute
CHA
Last Year: 44 – 22, 9th in East
Additions: Naz Reid, Dennis Schröder, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale
Departures: LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Josh Green, Tre Mann
The darlings of last season based on an extended run of playing some of the league’s best basketball, the team wilfully took a puzzling (IMO) step back in the offseason, getting out of the LaMelo Ball business. Regular readers may recall that I was advocating for the Raptors to trade for Ball long before any of this success took place. To my way of seeing things, he fit Toronto’s age timeline perfectly, still had tons of untapped potential, had size and superstar potential, and could probably be acquired at a modest cost (maybe IQ and some draft capital).
Considering they are coming off an months-long run as the NBA’s best team, this is shocking. The Hornets’ organization obviously knows galactically more than I do about Ball, and their decision to trade him away after that magical run screams volumes: They obviously do not believe he can be part of a contending, nor ascend to superstardom. Ouch!
Miles Bridges is a deplorable human being and it is sad to me that NBA teams don’t care because he has solid-if-unspectacular NBA talent. On the court, losing him hurts but was a great transaction win for CHA
As a casual observer, all of this seems extremely odd to me. The Hornets haven’t won a playoff round in a generation, and they respond to their incredible run with a teardown, in which the best assets acquired are draft picks. If I were a Hornets fan, I would be devastated and annoyed by this.
In the short term, this team is in a rough spot with Kon, Brandon Miller and Coby White all hobbled by injuries to start the season. Their numbers with LaMelo off the floor last year were…not good. It feels like this team is back in the lottery for now, and possibly for quite some time if Kon/Miller can’t elevate into superstardom.
Ceiling: The team gets healthy and sneaks into the play-in
Floor: May the (lottery) odds be ever in your favour
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
MIL
Last Year: 32 – 22, 11th in East
Additions: Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware, Caris LeVert, Kasparas Jakucionis
Departures: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Gary Harris
This was a bad team with Giannis, and they are poised to be terrible without him. Milwaukee enjoyed a long run with a historic supserstar, supplementing their championship window by selling out their future in trades. Unfortunately, that future has arrived, and the Bucks have years of bad NBA basketball in front of them
Without their own pick, their most important incentive is to re-stock the cupboard with draft assets by selling off their veterans, and figuring out if any of their young players can be contributors to the next playoff-bound Bucks team.
Ceiling: One of the worst teams in the NBA
Floor: One of the worst teams in the history of the NBA
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