The guiding philosophy here at “The Palaeontologist’s Hammer” is printed on the front page:
“Using the tools of palaeontology research to analyze the Raptors of Toronto: Describing phenomena of the past; developing an understanding of its direct effect on the present; and applying those theories to future pathways.”
Excitement is high in Toronto as the Raptors have looked impressive throughout the preseason and to start the year. However, while things look good in the moment, the best team management practices always have a forward eye to consider how best to navigate the coming months and years. Those considerations are even more noteworthy in the age of aprons and cap management.
Without wanting to be a downer in an otherwise exciting moment, and having thought about it at length, I would like to pursue the following thesis:
The Toronto Raptors should trade Jakob Poeltl AND Immanuel Quickley for an upgrade at lead guard, and sign RJ Barrett to a modest extension.
Jakob and IQ
“I don’t mind the high price of stardom. I just don’t like the high price of mediocrity.”
-Bill Veeck
The main issue here is a matter of resource distribution: The contracts for these guys are not ideal. In a vacuum, each contract can be tolerated because the player is a solid NBA starter. That said, neither are remotely a top option, nor is there much promise for elevation (The Sporting News recently ranked IQ as the 22nd best point guard and Jakob as the 21st best centre). However, they take up 34% of the cap in 2027-28, and 33.6% in 2028-29. That is far too much to be spending on them.
In this scenario, a two-for-one trade leaves openings either at PG or C. My suggestion is to trade for an upgrade at lead guard and…
Colin Murray-Boyles
At this writing, it is reasonable to assert that CMB is either the third or fourth most impactful Raptor. There is every reason to think that he will continue to play well and improve, and he is already a starting calibre player. Everything is fine for now considering his youth and place in the Raptors scheme of things. However, players this talented do not come off the bench, and one wonders how long he will be okay with being a bench player.
To be sure, starting CMB would leave the Raptors a bit small against teams with top centres. However, if the Raptors trade IQ+Jakob for an upgrade at centre while still shifting CMB into the starting lineup, the fit would be awkward and shooting would be an even bigger issue.
RJ Barrett Extension
What to do with RJ? He is in tons of trade rumours, and it makes sense: He’s on an expiring contract and is a better player than IQ and Jakob (The Sporting News ranked him as the 16th best SG). He is an imperfect player who frustrates me regularly, particularly on defense where he really should be much better. He has the size, savvy and physicality to be a good defender, yet he loses his man off the ball regularly, and gets blown by far too often. His three point shot isn’t ideal, and his free throw shooting is simply bad, especially for a shooter (66% as a Toronto Raptor).
However, I think he should be kept. Consider…
** He is extension eligible right now, and they can sign him to a more modest extension.
** By all accounts, he wants to stay, having intimate ties to Canada and the Raptors. It is fair to hope that he might be open to a modest extension rather than milking every dollar possible.
** He appears to be fully comfortable and happy in his role (not a given for a player of his experience and stature), and is a rock of maturity and toughness.
** Perhaps most importantly, he was absolutely capable of making meaningful contributions in the playoffs last season. While we did not see IQ in the 2026 playoffs, his previous history is not compelling. Jakob was also not encouraging in the playoffs.
What about that extension? To my way of seeing things, the two most recent precedents are Brandin Podziemski (5 years, $110M) and Cason Wallace (5 years, $139M). Both are significantly younger than RJ, so growth potential is baked into those numbers. I think it is fair to say that RJ’s value is between these two players, and the Raptors would do well to try to get his number closer Podziemski’s if possible. I think it would be a fantastic win for the team if they can get RJ at something like 3 years, $72M or 4 years, $94M.
Why is this the best course of action?
By trading for Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors window of championship contention has opened. However, even if Kawhi stays healthy, it is reasonable to question whether this team can compete at the highest level. Were my thesis to execute, it is reasonable to suggest that the Raptors could win the title with a finishing lineup of (All-Star level guard), RJ, Kawhi, CMB, and Scottie. The bench would be weakened with Shead and Walter leading the way. However, in a playoff atmosphere in which coaches play eight players and trust seven, they would still be in good shape.
Looking further ahead, my thesis would tidy up the books long term as well. The savings earned by clearing away the contracts of IQ and Jakob, in combination with RJ’s modest extension, would allow for a more sustainable cap sheet under which extensions for Battle, Walter and eventually CMB would be possible.
Post Script Notes
A few thoughts before signing off
** In case it needs to be said, I really like Jakob and IQ!
** From a contractual standpoint, I can see a course of action under which the team trades Jakob in a horizontal move for cap relief while keeping IQ: After all, he’s their best shooter and his contract isn’t as incongruent with his value. (someting like Jakob + picks for Beef Stew). However, I think trading both of them for an upgrade is a superior option with regard to actually winning championships.
** I’ll save some actual trade targets for a future post. Let me acknowledge that to get an upgrade and get off those contracts, it will take real draft capital.
** What happens with RJ if Ja’Kobe Walter ascends to stardom? First….in case it isn’t obvious, Raptors fans should absolutely be rooting for that! Walter is eligible for his rookie extension starting next summer. At this writing, I do see some encouraging off-the-dribble development from him early this season. Right now, I think it is more reasonable to expect him to continue developing into a solid 3-and-D wing off the bench, which might line up with an extension somewhere around the mid-level exception.
** To that end, while the Raptors can continue to sleep on the RJ extension, I believe the smarter play is to nail his extension at a reasonable number. That way, if Walter takes a star-turn, they can move RJ if it becomes necessary.
** Apropos of nothing, I’ll sign off by once again noting that Jamison Battle becomes extension-eligible soon, and I think it would be a tidy bit of business to lock him into a few more years at a decent number.
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